Climate Modelers fail to forecast El Niño, Again?

Early Onset destroys credibilities...

But, Stay Tuned!, They are convinced...


La Niña - Cool Killer from The Tropics!

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REFERENCES (contact <> for more info)

Year Locale Event Social Effects Source
1997 Eastern Africa Coasts Highland Floods Continued Coastal Rainfalls Somalia, Tanzania, and Moçambique highlands are flooded, crops ruined, and peoples displaced, thousands die

Indian Ocean ENSO Warm Event

1997 Indonesia Drought/Fires caused by slash and burn Agriculturists Dense smoke covers entire region affecting visibility, human health, thousands ill

East Indian Ocean ENSO Warm Event

1997 Western No.&So. America Coasts Ocean Warming anomalies reach 3-4C Fisheries perturbed as tropical- subtropicals are shifted poleward


March 1997 Western and Equatorial Pacific SOI dropping Kelvin Wave released (6 mo. early) extreme warming begins off So. America Fisheries perturbed as tropical- subtropicals are shifted /Chilean sardine catch @.75M tonnes in one week/ Drought in Australia/Indonesia/ SE Asian monsoon delayed


1997 India/China Monsoon Floods extreme Thousands perish in record floods


1997 Iran Two major quakes R=5.5

First tears apart rural areas of north-western Iran, killing 1,000 people. Three months later a stronger tremor, measuring 7.1, kills 1,560 in eastern Iran.


1997 Eastern Africa/Egypt Raging Sand Storm Disrupts Agriculture/Power/Water Supplies


1997 Western Pacific Early Kelvin Waves Dry January-April California/ Floods Mid- Western USA

Bad News Francisco Bay's Columnist Herb Caen dies

1997 Western Europe Harsh Winter Flooding/Freezes/crops destroyed


1996-97 Western USA/East Floods/freezes and heavy snow

Displacements/crops damaged/ California flood controls questioned


Late 1996-early 1997 Global Ocean ENSO Cool Event ends+ QBO +African Rainfall Forecast Hurricanes Islands/Atlantic coasts Wm Gray
October1996 California offshore Warming begins off No. America Fisheries perturbed: rockfish submerge/ tropical- subtropicals shift northward


1995 Europe Early Cold winter Olive crop freezes/floods


Mid 1995 Global Ocean ENSO Cool Event begins Typhoons/Hurricanes Plague Islands/coasts Wm Gray
1995 China Monsoon Floods extreme Thousands perish in record floods


1995 MidWest-Eastern USA Record Breaking Heat Over 500 persons die of heat related stress


1995-97 Korea Droughts/Floods extreme - withdrawal of food subsiidies from China/USSR 2-3 million perish


1995 Zaire Ebola virus outbreak Epidemic feared/Quarantines/>100 die WHO
1995 Southern Australia Coastal Upwelling/Algal blooms Pelagic fish dieoffs/anoxia/alga densities


1995 Kattegat/Skagerak Mild Winter/Virus Pinneped die-off


1995 South Africa Kruger Game Park/Rodent bloom Elephant die off/virus due to rodent outbreak



Sakhalin, Russia

Kobe Japan


The Hyogo quake

Massive earthquake - 1,989 die.

6,430 people die.

1995 Eastern USA Late onset of winter cold Warm/wet October-1st snow storm February G.D. Sharp
1995 Western Europe Heaviest rainfall in 150 yrs Flooding and associated social displacements G.D. Sharp
1995 California Floods Cont'd central Pacific warm event=heavy rainfall G.D. Sharp
Early 1995 Pacific Basin ENSO Warm event Kelvin wave/Peru January '95 G.D. Sharp
1994 Georges Bank/NE USA Commercial Fishing Stopped Resources overexploited/improper Management G.D. Sharp
1994 Global/Solar link Solar wind linked to climate Solar wind modulates magnetic field/climate Tinsley
1994-95 Japan Numerous earthquakes Culminates in Kobe 7.5 Richter event G.D. Sharp
1994 Eastern USA Severe winter December-February freezes/storms G.D. Sharp
1994 India Bubonic Plague epidemic Extreme heat/Rodent blooms/human density Epstein
1994 Zaire 1st Victim Ebola outbreak Forest/charcoal worker/family infected WHO
1994 Central Pacific ENSO warm event recurs Westerlies die11/15/94 releasing Kelvin wave G.D. Sharp
1994 Ecuador coast Strong Local Upwelling Coldest coastal SST for decades G.D. Sharp
1994 Baltic Algal overgrowth Warm temperature 73F stimulates blooms Epstein
1994 California Deer/puma populations expand Wildlife encroaches on human environments G.D. Sharp
1994 India Heat Wave
/Dengue/Black Plague
Severe outbreak follows rat outburst Epstein
1994 Mississippi valley Flooding Extended rainfall/floods/human displacement G.D. Sharp
1994 Pacific-wide 4 yr ENSO warm event cotinues Australia Drought continues/wild fires G.D. Sharp
1993-94 Zimbabwe Widespread Rodent infestations Rainfalls follow drought period Chikwenhere
1993 Central California coast Algal blooms/Domoic acid Sea bird and mammal kills Epstein
1993 So.West USA Extended rainfalls/Hanta virus Rodent vector invasions affect various locations Epstein
1993 Western Europe heavy rainfall Flooding and associated social displacements G.D. Sharp
1993 West and Southern India >10,000 people die. News
1993 Rio de Janeiro UNCED Accords Global Enviroment/Development/Sustainability
1993 Pacific-wide Cont. 4 yr ENSO warm event Australia drought continues G.D. Sharp
1992 Bengal Cholera outbreak 8th Pandemic Epstein
1992 So. California
Field rodents bloom Droughts punctuated by rainfall/seed plants Epstein
1992 Global SOI/LgthDay/Seismic relation Atmos/angular moment/LOD/seismic events Chinnery
1992 Global Fisheries UN FAO Report on Status Fisheries uneconomic/declining/mismanaged FAO Fisheries
1992 Western Europe heavy rainfall Flooding and associated social displacements G.D. Sharp
1992-1994 So. California Cooccidiomycosis outbreak Palmdale/Northridge Earthquake aerosols G.D. Sharp
1992 Central California Warm coastal species colonize Mackerel/baracuda/mammals appear G.D. Sharp
c1992 Global Seismic events escalate Shown to relate to ENSO minima NOAA/NGDC
1992 Pacific-wide Cont. 4 yr ENSO warm event Australia Drought G.D. Sharp
1991-92 Costa Rica Malarial outbreak Mosquito born /ENSO rainfalls Epstein
1991-92 California/Chile Rainfall = Desierto Florida Rains/arid areas have rare wildflower blooms G.D. Sharp
1991 Philippines Mt. Pinotubo erupts Thousands homeless, mudlsides/ash/aerosols G.D. Sharp
1991 Japan Mt. Unzen erupts Devastation widespread G.D. Sharp
1991 Florida Hurricane "Andrew" Devastates Miami area/thousands homeless G.D. Sharp
1991 North Carolina Pfeisteria piscida toxic blooms Active/Delaware/Florida/Gulf of Mexico Epstein
1991 So./Central America Cholera outbreak 7th pandemic Epstein
1991 So. California Bluefin return to region Sport fishery rekindled G.D. Sharp
1991 Pacific-wide Begin 4 yr ENSO warm event Many warm ocean species appear G.D. Sharp
1991 Soviet Union Collapse of USSR Economic collapse forced by Cold War G.D. Sharp
1991 Chile/Peru Coastal species reappear Giant squid, sierra and sprat recolonize coast G.D. Sharp
1991 Peru Cholera epidemic Many deaths/quarantines limit expansion Trager
1991-1994 Costa Rica, Pakistan Malaria explosion Droughts/Extreme wet periods/ENSO warm events Epstein

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