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.REFERENCES (contact<gsharp@redshift.com> for more info)

The Winter SolsticeFull Moon 12/22/1999


Year Locale Event Social Effects Source
2000 Boulder, Colorado

Post-election ENN Announcement by: Tom Wigley of NCAR - that once volcanism and El Niño effect sare removed from 'climate record' the recent century's projected trend is 0.25C/decade increase in Global Warming.

There was no hint in the 'announcement' of which data records were used to 'validate' the model's effective replication of Global Temperatures.

Denial of urban/site heat island effects seem rampant in this modeling community.

See Also Michaels and Knappenberger (2000), GRL, 27 1(8) 2905 - 2908,who did noise reduction on ENSO and volcanic dust on the satellite record 1979-1999 and came up with 0.041 per decade ­ So despite the contrary data, we're back to a 0.2 K per decade difference between the earth's surface and the troposphere temperatures?

Who do you believe?

Another round of confusion and lost credibilities due to this ill-conceived statement that does not tell anyone it's weaknesses,and assumptions.

Hypocracy 1A:

Gerd Weber points out: to cite Wigley's own words - from DOE/ER 235, Detecting the effects of increasing carbon dioxide, pages 83 - 84 (1985)"....it is impossible for essentially the same temperature fluctuations to be correctly explained by ..... different forcing function records. The only way that the results can be compatible is for all to be subject to considerable statistical uncertainty, that is, to have wide confidence bands for the regression coefficients and for the total explained variance."And (page 84): ".....because present knowledge of non-CO2 climate forcing mechanisms is as poor or poorer than our understanding of CO2 effects, a statistically rigorous application of this method (noise reduction) would be extremely difficult."

Vincent Gray - outspoken critic of these sorts of rhetorical psuedoscience replies:

"Wigley has merely proved the importance of the heat island effect and changes in the sun on the combined surface record.

He does not dare carry out a similar exercise on the radiosonde or MSU records.

He would find no evidence of greenhouse warming. "

75 Silverstream Road , Crofton Downs Wellington, NZ 6004 email: vinmary.gray@paradise.net.nz-

"It's not the things you don't know that fool you. It's the things you do know that ain't so"

Mark Twain

2000 Global

Malaria and Dengue fears spread by newIPCC Report -

Response from Paul Reiter - chief entomologist at the US government'sdengue research lab in Puerto Rico.

"...the Center for Disease Control andPrevention (CDC), was founded in 1946. Its principal mission was to eradicatemalaria from the US. In Europe, the disease was endemic as far north as Norway, Sweden and Finland. In the 1920s, epidemics killed hundreds of thousands in the Soviet Union, right up to the Arctic Circle. One of the last European countries to be freed of the disease was Holland. That was in 1970."


"As for dengue, the principal vector has been living happily in North America for about 300 years. At times, the disease has been rampant. Indeed, the world's first recorded epidemic was in Philadelphia in 1780. In 1922, all the southern states were affected. There were an estimated 500 000 cases in Texas alone.

... Between 1980 and 1999, therewere 68 cases of dengue in Texas. In three adjoining Mexican states, there were 62,514."

Disasters, Natural and Manmade, Kill 17000 in 2000


European Site - INTUTE



and Other Factoids

of Relevance

Six Thousand Heat Flow Measurements Can't BeWrong -
Huang, S. and Pollack, H.N. 1997. Late Quaternary temperature changesseen in world-wide continental heat flow measurements. Geophysical ResearchLetters 24: 1947-1950

CO2 and Sea Level: Who Leads Who?

Yokoyama, Y., Lambeck, K., Deckker, P.D., Johnston, P. and Fifield, L.K.2000. Timing of the Last Glacial Maximum from observed sea-level minima.Nature 406: 713-716.

Research Journal Reviews by Craig D. Idso and Kieth E. Idso

The nearest station to K2 is Srinagar, a high altitude city in Kashmir


ENSO "Cooling"

brings on


Droughts /Wild Fires due to post"Warm Event" - ENSO - Cooling of Global Ocean -

Hence less Convection; Evaporation; Lesser Transport of Ocean Moisture& Energy to East and higher latitudes:

Projected 70-80 yr Cycles and Vangengeim-Girs' Atmospheric ClimateIndex (Klyashtorin/Nikolaev) "Dominant Winds" suggest that the next 30 years will look Warm and Wet in the Terrain, but, >N-S winds, Means increased Upwelling for Northern Hemisphere Eastern Boundary Regions, and more rainfall in NW USA and northern California, hence more salmon, anchovies and other "Cold Water" species...

Flooding in India, Pakistan and other locations has hundreds of thousands homeless, thousands die.

This is a really a period of GREAT transition,back to the 1920-30 Period. .. or a major shift after the 2020 period...

Depending upon WHERE you are, Life will be better- or worse...

Ocean Production will Increase in the upwellingand new "rain belts" (i.e., salmon in southerly river systems),but many locales will need to rethink their experiences, then

"go speak to their grand parents" the eldest of whom havebeen (t)here, before...

Reality Checks due for "Global Modelling" Community


Science Magazine articles...

Joseph Fletcher's "Projections"

Logical synthesis of Global "Big Picture" from empiricalobservations and Proxy Data from highest resolution Time Sequenced Natural  Sedimentary Resources...

They Do Not look like GCM (models) output.

These differences are NOT solely Greenhouse Phenomena...

JohnDaly does Sea Level Rise 
watchers a Service

While CO2 Idsos Review bits

TRUST Empiricists...

2000 France, South Africa, Brazil Massive oil spills from sunken tankers and pipelinebreaks Thousands os sea birds, fishes, mammals killed/endangered, fisheries and water supplies tainted for long-term News
2000 Woods Hole, Mass. Frank Mather III, died, on March 27th, at age 89 The world of conservation lost one of its greatest spokesmen, an innovator and environmental hero. We must never forget him - or his enthusiasm for learning - and sharing ideas. Obituary from Hall of Fame site
2000 Somalia/Pakistan/India/... Drought

Famine, Again!

Live stock are starving, children are hungry, and the Cycle of Death Begins Again.

2000 Moçambique Tropical Storm Heavy rainfall, Flooding, and hundreds of thousands homeless as inundation erases infrastructure. Worst floods in over 50 years. News
2000 NW Romania, European rivers Cyanide Spill from overflowed Dam at Gold Mine 22 million gallons of cyanide-contaminated water to enter the Tisa River. The Tisa River flows through Hungary into Yugoslavia.Millions of fish are alleged to have been killed Associated Press
2000 France

Oil Spill - Winter storm grounds and breaksup oil tanker


Common and Striped dolphin found dead

Thousands of sea birds killed and coastal oysterbeds destroyed, costs mounting;

February >200 dead dolphins were found from Brittany south along the west coast of France. Many of the dead dolphins appeared wounded

BBC news
2000 Global Oceans

Ocean Cooling Continues Trend since 1998, withseveral indicators filling in the Big Picture, i.e.,

Lake Balkhash in east Kazakhastan, & Aral Sea are refilling after more than 30 years of drought; PDO and NAO windfields shifting,

COADS scalar winds turned downward nearly globally.

Shift in climate for most regions, reverses long-termtrends. e.g., Oregon State entering Cool/WetPeriod from long Warm/Dry epoch, Coastal upwelling not strong from Southern California to Oregon; Salmon growing larger, andfatter along coast; North Atlantic fisheries still depressed, as warm oceanexpanded, and is dissipating, shifting arrival times of Atlantic bluefin,for example, south of Cape Hatteras.

GD Sharp's Review of fisheries cycles and relevant climate links - revisit work of Joseph Fletcher and Leonid Klyashtorin, VNIRO,Moscow

George Taylor,Oregon State Climatologist,

Fishermen in news

Barbara Block - Hopkins Marine Station -

Tag A Giant Program

2000 Global - Happy NewYear!

Y2K Depression / SupplysideEconomics1A

No Acts of Terrorism

General Joy and Good Will,

except in Chechneya

PBS follows Dawn of 2000 around the world

What a Treat!

1999 North and Mid-Europe Cold Storm/High Winds Thousands without power/transportation, forests and parkways devastated


Storms of the Century

1999 Venezuela/Colombia Tropical Storm Worst flooding in recent history, still digging out, expectation of more than 20,000 dead News
1999 India/SE Asia Cyclones innundate large region of eastern India/ Bay of Bengal storm surges less than previously observed. Regions of Vietnam receive over 2 meters ofrainwater in a few days. Estimates: 10,000 die, many more homeless and withoutservices/ Worst since 1991 when 140,000 died, and 1970 when 300,000 liveswere lost in Bay of Bengal. Hundreds of thousandsdisplaced in Vietnam. News/IOC Unesco
1999 North Atlantic Ocean Cod recruitment Good
Off Iceland, still not showing much strength off eastern Canada/Georges Bank
Third year running that cod recruitment has been good, creates another symptom of a change in the North Atlantic climate regime Iceland Fisheries Research Institute / DFOCanada / NOAA NMFS
1999 North America

Droughts / Floods/ Hurricanes


In the NE, SE and South drought records were set, heat-related deaths were high: In midwest tornados and hunderstorms, created havoc; Hurricane season portends to be expensive;Along the west coast cool ocean temperaturesand slowed growing seasons create an opposite sign threat to commerce. The squid are back in MontereyBay, but sardines will decline. News
1999 Turkey/Greece Inevitable Earthquakes, The engines of ruin of historical civilizations within the region Death and destruction, in the poorest economic sectors, particularly amongst those living in the concrete warrens built by projects subject to graft and exploitation. News

Ongoing and Pending

Global Climate Changes

End of another warm Period imminent in PacificOcean/

This century's ENSO Warm Event Frequency was lowest of the recent five Centuries, and most similar to that of the 17thCentury, when the coldest global temperatures were recorded during the Post Medieval Warm - coolingand Maunder Minimum, all embedded within the so-called"LittleIce Age" and a longer Holocene cooling trendWithin a complex Cycle of many Ice Ages

Society will be surprised to learn that the recent century has experienced rather fewer ENSO Warm Events, and that their frequency is likely to increase, despite global warming, or whatever cause is given.

Disease vectors and wetter weather in some areaswill shift to other regions.

Ocean surface Current shifts and other information suggest that Alaska's salmon bloom era may come to a halt, and other species will bloom. As well the region from Washington south to California may find themselves awash in river flow, and spawning salmon for the first time in decades.

Sharp - 2003

El Niño Event frequencies since about 1957 rose to and neared previous Century's levels - but slowed and declined again post 1998





James Ingraham, NOAA

Mantua/Miles et al. U. Washington JISAO/


1999 Global Ocean Cooling of several years accumulation of surfaceheat Global SST distributions are about as "normal"as they ever get/ La Niña has RESET the temperatures to near seasonal expectations, and disappeared. Maybe that's what its about? FNMOC OTIS maps
1999 Colorado, USA Annual Long-RangeHurricane Atlantic Coast Landfall Prediction US Congress told of this year's and decades to come increased likelihood of Atlantic coast landfalls, an eventual high costs of over-zealous development along coastal margins of eastern and SE North America William Gray, et al. Climate Science Heroes standing up for observational and historical data analysis.
1999 South Central USA SpringTransition Plus Arctic Fronts Collide to Create Tornadoes South&Midland trailer parks + small towns devastated: thousands stranded and/or homeless. News / SevereWeather & NCDCHistorical Links
1999 North Central Europe and Russia North Atlantic Oscillation shift brings on Coldest Winter in decades Many lost in heavy snowfalls, and in a series of Alpine avalanches hundreds to thousands stranded and/or homeless. News
1999 Eastern Seaboard, USA Several Laden Clam Dredge Boats sink in heavy weather Three vessels in one week, five for this seasoncause reflection on policies and safety of small fishing vessels in ITQfisheries. News/ USCoast Guard
1999 Colombia 6.2 Richter Scale Earthquake Over one thousand die, 200,000 homeless News
1999 North America Heat wave, followed by Icy Cold Arctic Front -Clear Sky Chills Over one hundred dead from cold, dry weather -freezes crops, citrus, and affects poor/homeless as far south as MexicoCity News
1999 Pacific Basin Cooling Event Those Cold/Dry or Warm/Wet events associated witha minor La Niña and High Southern Oscillation Index News
1998 Western Pacific Philippine yellowfin tuna fishery declines, Japanese industry blocks imports of new smoked tuna products Warm/Wet events associated with a spreading outof tropical tunas, draws Philippino fishermen into Indonesian EEZ, to bejailed, beaten, or captured by Pirates for ransom, etc. Tunatown, Mindanao was becoming a regional buyers' Tuna Center- now limited to buying only from locals - Extensive Updates: to related developmental changes in recent era..
1998 Caribbean Hurricane Mitch Death and Destruction across the Yucatan, Nicaragua, Honduras, and Belize. Strong Storm and latent El Niño heat stored in Caribbean create disasters. News
1998 New York, New York

The Professor and the Madman - Published

A Tale of Murder, Insanity and the making of the Oxford English Dictionary

also... John Webster in his play "The Duchess of Malfi"wrote a line: "I need a dictionary to" in reference to Robert Cawdrey's 1604 octavo book "A Table Alphabeticall... of Hard English Words" ... "for the benefit & help of Ladies, gentlewomenor any other unskillful persons..."

Insights into the obsessions of a genius-mad doctor Willian Cester Minor- a victim of genetics and the atrocities of the Civil War - and Sir James Murray's lifework, a quest for English language words, their many meanings,and contexts. Leading the way toward the Modern Oxford English Dictionary, and the many others...

Simon Winchester, published via Harper-Collins

(What a delightful, if all too realistic work)

An Enriching Read!

1998 VNIRO Moscow Leonid B. Klyashtorin Correlates Earth Rotation Velocity Index with Pacificand Atlantic's Major Fisheries Earth rotation rate (atmospheric moisture, etc.)is filtered to take out solar cycles, and is found to be coherent with 50-70year patterns of fisheries population Blooms/Busts. L.B. Klyashtorin, 1998. Fisheries Research, 37:115-125
1998 Western Equatorial Pacific Multiple Typhoons Philippines inundated, Okinawa and southern Japaneseislands - many thousands homeless News
1998 Eastern Atlantic Multiple Hurricane Landfalls, and Storm Surges, Gulf of Mexico - Eastern Seaboard Alabama coast, Florida panhandle, Carolinas, andGeorgia take the brunt of warm water year following "official"El Niño. Not unlike 1925-26 et al., i.e., multiple floods caused Congress to enact Flood Control Act of 1928. NEWS
1998 Moscow/Belarus Cold Early OnsetSnow Earliest/Coldest since 1982-83 /Enso Event News
1998 Eastern Pacific  Coastal Upwelling  At last, by mid August there is general upwelling along western South America coastline, Chile to Peru, primary production is up Satellite/FNMOC OTIS model
1998 China Flooding of Yangtze River Once again, dikes are breeched and 3,700 swept away in this perilous river system, several monsoon storm waves occurred, well  over $3 billion damages China News, (see also 1930, 1911, 1887)
1998  Monterey, CA USA Find a Global Change Issue to whine about at Regional Workshop on "Global Warming Effects"  Disrespect for Observational Data, and undermining of Science credibility by Government Agencies, as superflous Federal Agency GS servants plan your future!? Local and Expert Reports
1998 South Cental USA and East of Sierras Heat Spell/Drought  Long duration of high temperatures causes hundred plus deaths, extreme energy use, andcrop failures throughout dry crop region. News/GDS
1998 Arctic Ocean margins High Temperatures (as last Summer) reach normal +5C  Marine mammals and fishery reources will continue to dwindle as their metabolisms and food supply are stressed Ocean Maps
1998 Equatorial Pacific and Upstream/Downstream Easterlies Restarting, Upper Ocean Heat Loss in Progress, drought in SE USA relents

Agency scientists excited to have predicted the observed heat loss in eastern Pacific... but still ???Waiting for La Niña ???

Eastern Florida's drought/ wild fires burn 300 structures, cause evacuations: 4000 firefighters and rainfall control fires.


Wm Gray 6/98 SeasonalHurricane Forecast


Human Mind

The SUN!

Tree Rings!!



& Realizations

Music, the Brain, and Ecstacy - Read It!

The Role of the Sun in Climate Change - Logic, observations, and facts!

IPCC documents are out of synch with Tree Ring data from 500 years old Mongolian trees


Stanford Solar Center

Påål Brekke

Hoyt& Schatten The Role of the Sun in Climate

Jacoby,D'Arrigo and Davaajarnts



Eastern Central Pacific

- It Ain't Over -

Peru Threw a Partyand Noone Came

Floods, and Typhoons


Coastal Ocean Chaos, north still too warm, upwellingjust restarting to south

A series of floods, Typhoons and associateddrownings and displacements of thousands.

Peru's Minister of Fisheries lifted the "Veda"on anchoveta, and allocated 600,000 tons.

The vessels cannot locate any schools of fish.


1998 Mexico -Southern - Eastern Central Pacific - ItAin't Over - Drought and Slash and Burn dry cropping start forestfires Fires burn out of control: those that are stopped above ground continue to burn at root levels. Smoke extends from Texas to Rockies, northeast to Nebraska, and east to Florida


1998 Peru 5/11/98 - Eastern Central Pacific - It Ain'tOver yet Fisheries Minister ends Veda, sets Quota of 600K tons for anchoveta Fleet searches for anchoveta schools in North Peru coastal region. Find nothing. Fishery Closed again for a few weeks.


1998 Moscow-Central Russia /SE USA Heavy Spring Snow Storm & >180 Tornados Greatest snowfall for one hundred years/ Largest number of Tornados since 1925: Hundreds dead, thousands homeless


1998 SW Pakistan Floods Tens of thousands marginalized poor homeless, over one thousand unaccounted for, hundreds of drowned recovered


1998 East Africa Floods Tens of thousands marginalized poor homeless/Insectvectors thrive/ Herds and Humans under seige by bad bugs and disease


1998 Eastern & AmericaWest Coasts February Snow Storms/ContinuedCoastal Rainfalls Snow Storms & Heavy Rainfall Across Ohio RiverValley / Highways Closed due to Floods and Mudslides in Central California


1998 Eastern No. & So. America Coasts January Arctic Ice Storms/Continued Coastal Rainfalls Phenomenal Ice Storms take out Power across eastern Canada and Maine / Floods - Disease in Ecuador,Colombia and Peru

NOAA IRI focuses on disease from ENSO Warm Event

To 1991-1997, orHome:

Out There!