2005 and ONWARD!
Return Home or 2001-2004; 1998-2000 ;1991-1997;1977-1990; 1967-1976; 1953-1966; 1930-1952;
1896-1929;1864-1895; 1817-1863; 1739-1816; 1671-1738; 1600-1670; 1531-1599;
1295-1529; 400-1294; 2200BC-309AD; 25ka-2250BP; 4.6Billion - 36kaBP...
Post Catastrophic Progress, the World is Changing, and
We are still The Problem...
Some People are Mis presenting Facts -
From the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report
that stresses that 'extreme and dangerous' trend, etc...
While others are making the records not so Straight,
But More Complete, Thus More Meaningful...
The Long-Term Pattern From OSU Climatologist George Taylor's Report -
That show the recent decade is Not Yet as warm as past records,
Like So Many Others...
As clearly described by Dr. Robert E. Steveson back in 2000,
OCEAN WARMING/COOLING is NOT About Humans...
The
Most Recent Fiasco -
Steve McIntyre points out the Glitch in the GISS USA Weather Records
after 2000 -
Upon which Hansen et al base their phony claim -
"1998 warmest ever"...
Quantifying
the Hansen Y2K Error - by Steve McIntyre -
and then
We look at Northern Europe - an analysis by Timo Niroma, Solar Advocate -
Plus his home town - Helsinki, Finland
Meanwhile- look at other regions, such as Australia (or California's Trends by population size or by Location, as provided by James Goodridge, 55 year veteran State Climatologist)
The Role Of Urbanization and associated Heat Island phenomena are evident:
Australia's Cities
Vs
Then in Brazil -
Sao Paolo went from a few hundred thousand to Post WWII growth to ~ 20 million
over this graph's time scale:
Meanwhile only 950 or so kilometers inland is the Mission San Juan Bautista Paraguay -
a relatively small community:
Hmmm...
What Do You Think Causes the Trends in Cities?
Then, for those who have never looked at the dates of the
Hi and Lo Temperature Records for Each of the States in the USA
Everyone has a Right To Their Opinions - But - Facts Count...
Well, lets look at CO2 vs Population Size for the recent Two Centuries or so...
Then perhaps, instead of blaming People - Look at Climate History (Temperature) and CO2 levels
or at NCDC Paleo Data Series
SOHO PROJECT
- Imagery - PAST, PRESENT, ETC.
Look Down, Then Around, and Then - Maybe At the MOON
Check Out The State of the World Ocean
Links to Myriad Sites About the Oceans and Their Inhabitants
about the Rotating Earth
Looking back at the Wars and Economic Crises of the 20th Century, Let's NEVER Forget
.REFERENCES (contact <gsharp@redshift.com> for more info)
| Year | Locale | Event | Social Effects | Source |
| 2008 | Southern Chile \ and / Downstream |
Chaiten Volcano Erupts |
Thousands of people have fled their town in Chile after a volcano erupted for the first time in at least 2,000 years. Nearly 4,500 forced to leave Chaiten as the volcano spewed ash. Many were sent by boat to Chiloe Island and to Puerto Montt on the mainland. More than 60 earthquakes were recorded. Officials distributed fresh water and more than 10,000 protective masks. Winds also carried ash over the Andes to Argentina, where school was suspended in the Patagonian towns of Esquel and Trevelin. |
News - "There are 25 million to 30 million people that live very close to at least one of these potentially active volcanoes in the Andean Arc, including the cities of Quito and Santiago," said CU-Boulder geological sciences Professor Stern. "This is a good example of what could happen at any time in the region, and it is fortunate the Chaiten eruption is occurring in a pretty sparsely populated area." "The volcano went into a higher state of activity this morning," Stern. "What happens after today is anybody's guess." In addition to covering towns and villages and polluting air and water, the ash fall will undoubtedly affect agricultural and ranching activities, Stern said. "Because there is relatively little precipitation in the region of Patagonia east of the volcano, it will take a long time to naturally wash the ash from the landscape." Stern and Jose Naranjo of the National Service of Geology and Mining, who published a 2004 paper in the journal "Geology of Chile," used radiocarbon methods to date the last eruption of Chaiten and concluded the eruption generated layers of volcanic tephra on the surrounding landscape up to five feet thick. The same prehistoric eruption apparently created the two-mile-diameter crater where the current eruption is centered, the authors said. Stern said the possibility of the Chaiten volcano affecting Earth's climate is probably fairly low. "In to order to significantly affect the climate, a volcano has to put out a lot of sulfur dioxide aerosols into the stratosphere for an extended period, which then reflects sunlight away from the Earth," "Our data from Chaiten showed the last eruption was high in silica and low in sulfur." |
| 2008 | Myanmar/ Burma |
Cyclone Nargis | Estimates are still coming in - But so far at least 22,000 are known dead and many more missing - More than one million homeless in Myanmar are battling to stave off disease and hunger Thursday, but the military government maintained tight limits on foreign assistance after the massive cyclone. The five states hit hardest by Saturday's cyclone produce 65 percent of the country's rice. The region was also home to 80 percent of aquaculture, 50 percent of poultry and 40 percent of pig production |
News UN rep says - Aid delivery will be a major logistic problem  FAO |
| 2008 | Arctic | Return of the Arctic Sea Ice | Recent cold snap helping Arctic Sea Ice: Arctic Ocean Circulation Does An About-Face: Variability derived from Historical Observations: Toggweiler & Russell show us that "Climate models predict that the ocean's circulation will weaken in response to global warming, but the warming at the end of the last ice age suggests a different outcome" - Ocean Circulation in a Warming Climate: Decimation of the polar bear: bearfaced lies? A leading expert in forecasting tells spiked that research into the impact of climate change on polar bears has been shockingly shoddy. Willie Soon, Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong Polar Opposites |
Canadian Ice Service The Cryosphere Today National Snow and Ice Data GODAE Polar Fiction Polar Bear Hearing: Armstrong Testimony Richard Glenn Testimony & Inhofe vs Al Gore |
| 2008 | Global | Despite
the Known
History of Global Warming - The Debate over AGW Consensus Goes On - and - On - and - So On! |
People are Shifting Their Opinions - As In Climate Cooling - and - The USA Weather Patterns return to what was seen back in the 1920-40 Era... The Green Projections about Polar bears is Debunked... Ocean pH Changing - CO2 Cause or Effect? Then, History of CO2 measurements, per Ernst Beck More Projections - Anyone? Everyone ? -- Nope! Just More of the Same Olde Same Olde BBC Sells On... See Arctic News above! |
Climate Change Facts Anyone? The IPCC Reviewed - There Are Real Issues - Around the Globe - BUT AGW is Way Down the List... Global Warming and Nature's Thermostat - Roy W. Spencer, Reid Bryson, one of Weather Forecasting's 'Fathers' - AGW Facts - & Fiction Cold Facts About GW |
| 2007/2008 | Global | La Niña | The Generic Cold Event Status has merged with the enhanced Mobile Polar High frequency - and there are lots of major weather events in motion - China has experienced one of the worst winters in decades, with lots of people being unable to travel - China was not alone - along the West Coast of North America - related storms were stalled until late January - When Shift Happened! 200-400% Snowfall in the northwest - and a dry early season was pushed to the 125-150% rainfall all along the Central California coast and inland valleys with strong winds, high surf and tree falls causing Blackouts Across Monterey Bay from Carmel into the Santa Cruz Mountains - some without power for 7-8 days.... |
Updated
news About
Rossby Waves and Ocean Heat Transport Across
the Globe - per Eddies and Wave Dynamics in the
Indian Ocean - The basics of Todays Satellite Tracking of Upper Ocean Features - Andrew Dessler - dilemmas - in Physician - Heal Thyself |
| October 2007 | Nobel
Peace Prize - IPCC & Al Gore 'share the wealth' & Maybe the Nobel Fleece Prize? Grin - & Bear IT! |
Well,
The Heat is ON! Two days before the Nobel announcement - a British High Court judge has indicated "Al Gore's movie, An Inconvenient Truth, represents 'partisan political views' and must be treated as such by teachers in British schools" - and on it goes, a Gore shifts his Prize Money to a Palo Alto NGO he formed - where Stephen Schneider and his wife Terry Root, an ecologist [both teach at Stanford University], who often refers to a number of species as “functionally extinct.” Although they are not extinct now - But they will spend your money - not on climate reseach, but mostly focused on spreading Gorey News!! Then, the so-called human signal ostensibly provided by Mann in the 2001 IPCC report and the Jones temperature increase of the last 130 years have not withstood the standard scientific tests complicated by a failure to disclose information and devolved to the 'evidence' from computer models in the 2007 IPCC report. This is why Steve Milloy at http://www.junkscience.com/ - offer $125,000 - to be awarded to the first person to prove, in a scientific manner, that humans are causing harmful global warming. |
Nobel
Ink: Announcement: Last Sentence: "Action is necessary now, before climate change moves beyond man’s control." John Christy - on IPCC's Level of Ignorance... Taipei News: Energy Bulletin: Bayou Buzz: Sydndey Morning Herald: William Gray - Speak UP! Christopher Monckton of Brenchley's 35 Errors in AIT: Maybe Windfarms will earn the Nobel Pox Prize? |
|
| 2007
- August |
USA | Steve McIntyre finds faults in the NASA/GISS US Temperature data used in James Hansen's repeated media over-estimations of recent Temperatures - Thus, given the NASA/GISS error these were not quite record temperatures and one wonders about the supposedly 'scary' - likely future scenarios... | NASA/GISS staff quickly revisit and 'fix' the errors - to discover that their long-running decree that 1998 was the warmest year inthe last thousand years - was simply 'wrong' - Now everyone can see the 'facts' about the rather important pre-industrialization warm epochs - the revised US temperature record is now: Top 10 GISS U.S.
Temperature deviation (deg C) -
in New
Order as of 8/7/2007 -
Year OLD NEW 1934 1.23 1.25 1998 1.24 1.23 1921 1.12 1.15 2006 1.23 1.13 1931 1.08 1.08 1999 0.94 0.93 1953 0.91 0.90 1990 0.88 0.87 1938 0.85 0.86 1939 0.84 0.85 Of course, there was little coverage in the news media. Finnish temperature statistics also show that 1934 was the warmest year for southern and central Finland, but 1938 was warmest in northern Finland as seen in this graph of annual average temperatures (red for Helsinki, southern Finland - blue for Sodankyla, northern Finland). |
Probably
the worst
example of the sort of 'over-statement' that the public continuously
faces - by Agency and Political folks who are immersed in the quest for
funding - rather than the Quest
for 'Truth'. My own family history is laden with 'facts' from the mid- 1930 Dustbowl days - when the farmers in North Texas, Kansas and eventually throughout the mid-west suffered huge droughts, extreme temperatures - etc. - All well documented in the film series by Pare Lorentz - The success of these projects led Roosevelt to establish the United States Film Service in 1938 under Lorentz' direction. The USFS was active until 1940, when Congress cut off its funding - per usual... Meanwhile - Hansen Gets Mugged - again - CO2 Science Critique of Hansen Testimony 4/2007 Muddling vs Modeling & What Causes What - Debate: |
| 2007 | Europe,
Great Britain/Scotland - and - East Africa - and - the Agulhas Current Shifts to creat a Warmer SE Coast - and the Fish Follow - |
Heavy Weather and Flooding WARNINGS OF SURPRISE FLOODS which the Met Office wouldn't see coming issued by Weather Action 4 days before the floods. - Wet period 12th-14th June first forecast by Weather Action 6 months ahead. - 16th-19th June will be finer than Met Office say. - Another serious deluge with dramatic thunderstorms 24th-26th June. |
UK
Flood disaster caused by special activity from the sun. Detailed
warnings were issued by Weather Action long range forecasters. More
floods to come in July. Weather Action The Long Range Forecasters Floods Disaster NEWS 25th JUNE 2007 "These flood and thunder disasters are nothing to do with so-called man-made global warming. In fact traditional meteorologists in the man-made climate doom camp had predicted a hot sunny June. So where has their summer gone? No doubt we will hear claims that these extremes are evidence of their man-is-to-blame theories whereas in fact they can forecast nothing. One wonders, what do they forecast for the rest of the summer and wll they put bets on it ? (see News Release 22nd June below). "This June's weather is closer to the normal variable sort of British summer which Bono wants us all to suffer. As far as I am concerned global warming is a good thing - like it was in warmer times from 9,000 to 900 years ago, but anyhow none of it is caused by man and in fact there has been no global warming since world temperatures peaked in 1998". Piers Corbyn said today (22nd June) "I am happy that these washouts are coming - and they will be WORSE than anything the Met Office will say even from 12 hours ahead - because it confirms our long range forecast which also correctly predicted the recent periods of devastaing floods especially affecting road, rail, electricity and farming. However I, like everyone affected, am distressed that those who control institutions who should behave more responsibly do not apply our forecasts and prepare to help the public in advance. Instead they are more interested in defending failed politically motivated theories of man-made Global warning which can predict nothing; so they shun our scientific forecasts which depend on predictable aspects of particle and magnetic efects from the Sun". "The Global Warmers must tell the public where their 'hot summer' has gone and I challenge them to place bets (eg on Betfair.com ) that: This summer sometime in England or Wales will exceed 91F (we do not think it will) and place wagers with me on British and on World temperatures this year which we forecast - contrary to their predictions - will not be record breakers." (NB These bets on British and World temperatures were offered by Piers Corbyn in January but no-one has taken him up) |
I
knew floods were coming: Other Comments from GB Elgin UK Flood History Forres UK Flood History Rothes Scots Flood History Meanwhile, back at the Mill - The Environment Agency spokesman Anthony Perry said: "We have not seen flooding of this magnitude before. The benchmark was 1947 and this has already exceeded it." What about those earlier Floods that set all the real records??? Then, we find that in East Africa - Sunspot abundance linked to heavy rains ... intense rainfall in the region often leads to flooding and disease outbreaks. The analysis by a team of U.S. and British researchers shows that unusually heavy rainfalls in East Africa over the past century preceded peak sunspot activity by about one year. Because periods of peak sunspot activity, known as solar maxima, are predictable, the researchers propose - so too are the associated heavy rains that precede them. |
| 2007 | Pacific Basin - "Ring of Fire" and Beyond |
The Earth
has about 10 earthquakes greater than magnitude 5 every day - BUT... Lunar Eclipse & Earthquakes, etc. Here are the dates of full lunar eclipses from 2001 to 2007 2001 Jan 09 2003 May 16 2003 Nov 09 2004 May 04 2004 Oct 28 2007 Mar 03 When to Expect the Next Lunar Eclipse |
Events
which occurred within two weeks prior and/or two weeks after the last
six full lunar eclipse.
January 2001 - (India) A magnitude 7.6 earthquake shook the Indian Province of Gujarat. It was one of the two most deadly earthquakes to strike India in its recorded history. The death toll was 19,727, number of injured at 166,000, over 600,000 people were left homeless, with 348,000 houses destroyed and an additional 844,000 damaged. May 2003 - (Turkey) At least 176 people have died and 521 people were injured after a magnitude 6.4 earthquake that shook the eastern Turkey's Bingol province. Several public buildings collapsed in the centre of Bingol city and its vicinity. The last official report concerning the consequences of the earthquake in the city indicates about 570 buildings were collapsed and about 6000 others were damaged. May 2003 - (Algiers) A strong earthquake measuring 6.8 magnitude struck the coastal region east of Algiers and the Tell Atlas mountains of Algeria. 2,251 people died, another 1,200 missing, 10,243 were injured and 200,000 made homeless. May 2003 - (Japan) A 7.0 magnitude earthquake hit northern Japan, however, there were no casualties and very few people were injured due to the depth (about 44 miles underground) of the epicenter of the earthquake. October 2003 - (China) A magnitude 6.1 earthquake kills nine, and more than 43 people were injured after two earthquakes jolted northwest China's Gansu Province. Over 10,000 homes have been destroyed, leaving their occupants exposed to temperatures that can fall below freezing, according to Gansu provincial seismological bureau. April 2004 - (United States) Yellowstone Super Volcano experienced over 400 quakes within three days. This type of increase in earthquake activity is called a "swarm". Parts of the caldera were closed to the public with areas of surface temperatures reaching over 200 degrees Fahrenheit. Some reports were telling of the sole of on-lookers shoes were melting just prior to the area's closing. October 2004 - (Japan) A series of powerful earthquakes the strongest with a magnitude of 6.7 jolted northern Japan, killing at least 30 people and injuring more than 2000 people largely as the result of building collapse. The strongest earthquakes occurred during a period of several hours with the main epicenter located near Yamakoshi village, Niigata Prefecture. Thousands of landslides were triggered by the earthquakes and aftershocks with much associated damage to roads, agricultural fields, and residential. March 2004 - (United States) An ongoing swarm of small earthquakes began in the Three Sisters volcanic center in the central Oregon Cascade Range. The earthquakes are occurred in the northeast part of an area centered 5 kilometers (3 miles) west of South Sister volcano in which the ground has been uplifted by as much as 25 cm (about 10 inches) since late 1997. February 2004 - (Morocco) A 6.4 magnitude earthquake in northern Morocco near the coastal city of al Hoceima killed 628 people and left 15,000 homeless. |
Mitch Battros Earth Changes Media August 6, 2007 NASA StarrySkies - What is a Lunar Eclipse? |
| 2007 | Global | The News Media is Finally
Letting Go of the One-Way Global Warming-Think that has been ongoing
for over a decade - You can finally get some facts and opinions that are Not Deadly The upcoming IPCC 2007 Report - well disguised... but not all science. |
Academician of the Russian
Academy of Sciences, Yury Izrael - Institute of Global Climate and
Ecology. "I
think the panic over the Global warming is totally unjustified." Land use and popular decisions are changing Nigerian desert into croplands... "It's not in Al Gore's PowerPoint presentation, but there are some upsides to global warming." Global Warming as Religion and not Science Good news, Mr. Gore, the Apocalypse has been postponed Climate change and global warming teaching in schools is flawed through omission, simplification and misrepresentation, says the Royal Society of Chemistry's chief executive. A 17 year olde takes on the subject matter - Ponder the Maunder was an extra credit project for Honors Earth Science, Portland High School, by Kristen Byrnes of Portland Maine - a comprehensive look at the global warming issue without financial or political bias. It uses updated information provided by scientists and researchers and interjects common sense, an important component missing from the global warming debate. |
Nir Shaviv
takes on the IPCC science - and basis of their
doom-and-gloom scenarios. James Hansen's Congressional Testimony on Carbon Dioxide and Global Change: Takes Gas from experts who work at Separating Scientific Fact from Personal Opinion When Will Media Report the Kyoto Carbon Con? Media Ignore Al Gore’s Financial Ties to Global Warming Ernst Beck's Presentation on the History of CO2 David Archibald's .pdf - Failure To Warm Presentation: |
| 2007 | Global | Extensive interests in the ongoing changes in oceanographic conditions along with many other issues have caused a lot of changes recently in the availability and thus web-site development... | While I have spent many years, since the early 1970s, tracking SSTs and upper ocean dynamics, accessing the observation sets have always been a time consuming issue. I started working with Scripps institution of Oceanography staff, particularly Margaret Robinson, then with her protege, Roger Bauer in creating the ocean basin scale maps of seasonal ocean conditions, SSTs, depths of isotherms and the upper mixed layer - all relevant to my interests in high seas fisheries effectiveness - and in their development as well as the interpretation of CPUE records for management purposes. On developing my interests in Global Climate Chane and related fisheries interests - it became more important to have access to real-time and time series data sets - quite difficult to find, until the Fleet Numerical and Meteorology Center in Monterey began posting daily 12 hour updates - until last November - when access simply ceased. The buck had been passed. | Real
Time Analyses of SSTs While Anomalies were of great interest - they seems to have become harder to find - The Japanese website here is working away on these issues. Higher resolution aspects of these data are offered by the GODAE Pilot Project And then there is Cloud Cover - the major interference with SST satellite measurements IPCC et al Know what is Needed - But - When ??? |
| 2007 | Asilomar, Monterey Bay | 23rd Pacific Climate
Conference May 13-16 |
The Conference opened on schedule with Kelly Redmond's review of the weather and climate over the Pacific and USA, but Maury Roos was unable to attend - and the California year was reviewed by Mike Anderson - The next day we began a long series of reviews of environmental changes over time from fires to beetles to vegetation changes with climate - including ongoing issues related to regional warming and low precipitation of the recent years... some places. The Main Theme was "Abrupt Climate Change" - on all time and space scales - measured using glaciers, marine sediments, and large lake volumes. Multiple examples re California's two main inland watersheds and their disconnect laid the ground for discussions of micro climates and their different responses to similar Climate Change Events - and the conference finished up with a few brief presentation updating works by Norton and Mason's efforts to relate the California Current fisheries production patterns - now including World market demand issues - and then my updates from Klyashtorin and colleagues, and my efforts with Doug McLain to update our global coastal ocean transects - that are limited by the severe declines of in situ ocean observations since the USSR fleets left the seas. | The
Announcement/Schedule
and - Proceedings, abstracts and eventual CD with all of the material
will appear in about two years - as the documents are completed, and
funding appears. |
| 2007 | Washington DC | April 17th Congressional Hearing - Subcommittee on Fisheries, Wildlife and Oceans: “Wildlife and Oceans in a Changing Climate” |
On April 6th my phone
rang, and I was told that I was to be
invited to the Subcommittee hearing on April 17th - as was my long-time
colleague John Everett, ex-NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service,
Climate Change Program Chief - with whom I worked in the 1986-89 epoch
when we produced the first Ecosystem-based Fisheries Management Program
Development Plans for the Regional Fisheries Management Bodies to be
submitted to Congress - to
be rejected - and
buried as the Bush I
Administration entered in 1990 - Well now - Here we are back in front of Congress - to try to help organize National Responses to the media-hyped and IPCC's Institutional $$$ Phisher's Globals Warming threats... One of the Congressmen started off his queries with a long dissertation on the dynamics of two very carefully balanced heavy weights on the two ends of a long rod - and then adding a small pellet of CO2 to one end - COLLAPSE of the Balance - of course - Huh? Duh! I guess he doesn't understand that NATURE is NEVER in BALANCE - or we would all likely still be Blue-Green Algae - or lesser forms. Well, we listened to the first Panel centered on Ecological Issues - and Solutions - and then we sat down with those focused on CO2-related Ocean acidification - and Coral Reef Consequences - and finally did our bits, - which included filing our testimonies, and then answering the additional questions sent to us afterward - What if Congress had actually responded to our initial PDP - 20 Years ago??? Most of what is missing information today would have been filled in. |
My Invitation:
Congressional Committee Hearing site: My own Testimony: My Answers to the Follow-up Questions: Some interesting links to John Everett's various websites: UN Ocean Atlas - Climate Change Facts: Fortunately, I did not have to pay my own way to and from - Thank You! Marshall Institute. |
| 2007 | Global |
NCAR's Michael H Glantz
Updates the Perspectives on El
Niño/La
Niña & ENSO
The US Climate
Prediction center provides the SOI
values since 1950 -
While Australia's CSIRO have SOI data back into the 1860s - The fundamental message as I read these records - "Never the same Twice" |
Over almost three
decades, Mickey Glantz has tried to assay and
better understand the 'Winners vs Losers' aspects of Climate
Changes, focusing on El Niño since the early
1980s - when
its first official definition came out of the IOC workshop held in
Lima, Peru - "El Niño =A 2C SST rise off the coast of
Callao,
Peru" - now considered a 'childish' if not silly 'local' perspective. A
2007 Workshop Report - "The Potential Use and Misuse of El
Niño Information in North America" -
particularly on the Forecast Capabilities and Relative Utility
provides several worthy updates for all interests - not just No.
America, His Report
Summary is a Great Starting point!
One of the
consequences of the
wake-up call of 1982-83 was the development of broader interests in
pacific ocean temperature data sets - and the eventual birth of the
NOAA/PMEL TOGA/TAO
observation program.
However, quite an interesting example of the issues from the 'application' of such insights appears on the Queensland Longpaddock website - |
"The Potential Use and Misuse of El Niño Information in North America" |
| 2007 | Global | News Media Nightmare
Generation HYPE & SPIN Rather Than FACTS |
Follow-ups
on the various Climate Forecasts are numerous, and some are wiser than
others - From Toulouse
France - Some are merely Signs of the Times - Roger Pielke, jr. Science and Technology based - and then - Roger Pielke sr. - Climate Science - New Zealand Scientist's Fact-Based Effort - and then $$cary Junk News - Comments Re Al Gore's new Industry - Carbon Trading A Huge $CAM! |
CO2
& Other GHG Nir Shavir - CONSequences March 2007 Senate hearing - Gore Vs EveryFact - Fluorocarbons & SFl6 NAS Science Museum Weather and Climate |
| 2006 | Pacific Basin | Western USA has delayed
winter- and 130-150% precipitation then Early ENSO Warm Event - weak version |
Long,
Intense rainy season in the NW USA leaves a long trail as coastal ocean
is overlain, upwelling reduced, and lots of die-offs. Agriculture
sector sits on hold as rain muddies the fields, and eventually with 1-2
month delay gets on with business. Similar delays in Japan and western
Regions Meanwhile, NASA/GISS carries on- as usual - as per Roger Pielke, jr. post: "... there is a dark line being drawn in the sand by NASA’s Jim Hansen and colleagues (the original link to the report PDF ftp://ftp.giss.nasa.gov/outgoing/JEH/bams_29mar20062_all.pdf link doesn't work anymore, there is no bams_29mar20062_all.pdf file in the JEH folder): 'We suggest that an El Niño is likely to originate in 2006 and that there is a good chance it will be a "super El Niño", rivaling the 1983 and 1997-1998 El Ninos, which were successively labeled the "El Niño of the century" as they were of unprecedented strength in the previous 100 years.' WRONG AGAIN JIM HANSEN ??? |
Unusually wet and
resulting oceanographic consequences puzzle Scientists - OSU Marine
Science Center
|
| 2006 | Black Sea | Continuous Changes | Evolution of the Black Sea Ecosystem | Ascherson, N. Black Sea. 1998 - Sorokin Yu.I. Black Sea Ecology and Oceanography. (2002) - Zaitsev Yu., Mamaev V. 1997 Biological Diversity in the Black Sea: A study of change and decline. |
|
2006 |
Remembering Global Cooling? |
Media Hype - More and More... Senator
Inhofe is called
names for being careful...
James Hansen's claim about 'Censorship' makes headlines - Why? Then there was the Great debate over What Hurricanes are All About... mostly confused by those just recently starting to look into Tropical oceans and their influences... Hansen and others make claims about Global Warming that Other Real Experts just don't Buy - In fact, They debunk much of the mythology promoted in Gore's Hansenesque Movie... |
Roger Pielke, Sr. posted this statement on the Colorado State University Climate Science blogsite... Meanwhile, Space Weather is Alive and Getting points Across... And PaleoScience data sets are making their way back into the Story! And - Linking Weather and Climate is Still Tough - for those who do not understand the differences. "The last two decades of the twentieth century were a good time to be a plant on planet Earth..." NCDC Climate Timeline
has it's Moments...
|
NCAR's
Solar Activity Model results are Posted
And
NASA's Forecast for the same period They are simply opposites. And as The ESA/NASA SOHO Program calms down - Paal Brekke is back in Norway - working toward the future monitoring of the Sun, et al... As we near the end of 2006 -
75 year old William Gray, Premier Hurricane Forecaster makes his point! Despite FSU's Grant for developing a Hurricane Forecast Model - We will be losing Direction as folks like James O'Brien Retire - as their past efforts have been very substantial, and informative... And then there are those Media folks: MaryAnn Johanson's "I've Been Gored" |
|
2006 |
San Francisco, not Alaska? |
EXXON-Mobile Corp was actively urging a federal appeals court to erase the $5Billion in damages an Alaska jury awarded those affected by the 1989 Valdez Oil Spill. |
After EXXON's recent third quarter record profit earning report of $10Billion, their attorney told the three judge panel that they should not be liable for more than $25Million in punitive damages... EXXON has spent $3Billion on cleanup over the last 16 or so years, and they claimed that "the harm was largely avoided". That comment prompted chuckles from a packed courtroom that included fishermen - one from Prince William Sound was quoted to have said "Our lives were trashed." - The three member judicial panel remained silent - still pending... |
News |
|
2006 |
LEGACIES, GLOBAL & Otherwhere |
20 years after Challenger's Cold Day Catastrophe, NASA GISS claims the warmest January for the USA - But February in the east tells another tale. |
I was driving from Gainesville, FL to St. Petersburg on January 28, 1986, for an appointment with regional fisheries staff about some common issues - when in the sky before me the clearest 'rocket launch' from the Kennedy Space Center I had ever witnessed was in progress - with the trail arching heavenward before me - and then a weird explosion with several trails took place - with the topmost slowly heading skyward - As I had no radio in my car - it was only when I arrived at the St. Pete offices, and found all the staff glued to their huge plane glass window - all with tears in their eyes - that I got the news - "Challenger was gone, with all hands", the teacher, and all... because it has been so cold that morning - that the seals in one of the rocket boosters did not perform - BOOM! |
History, before my own eyes... Hansen's Courtroom Roots
|
|
2005 |
Global Means Mean ??? |
Multiple Claims of Warmest or As Warm As - The gory details: Or Maybe... Just More Media Babble Canadian Climatologist, Tim Ball, pointed out that these results are based on insufficient sample points given what we know about regional climate differences. As H.H.Lamb noted you can have completely different trends for as much as 100 years in different regions. There are several levels of climate variation - with geography being a major contextual variable. |
In Canada the west warmed from 1980 to the present while the east cooled, which half of the country would you choose to represent Canada's average temperature for that period? Canada covers a large part of the earth's land surface. While in the last few weeks the end of the 2005 weather year brought all sorts of claims about "Warmest Year" etc, the opposite situation was occurring all over Argentina - a nation with a large latitudinal spread - The central and southwest part or (the) country is influenced by humidity brought by winds from the west that crosses the high Andes Cordillera, and condensed by strong cold winds from Antarctica. This year of 2005 was especially noted for "Antarctic cold spells" and "cold fronts" that were abnormally frequent and unusually cold. (Leroux MPHs!) That is an awful lot like what much of the Midwest and eastern USA has been enjoying as well, given the number of record low temperatures across the nation in 2005. That's why many people laugh when some dope looking at only land stations from1950+, or 1978 to present satellite data says "2005 the warmest year" ? - Only in their feverish minds! |
Tim Ball <timothyball@shaw.ca>
Arthur Rorsch of Nederlands looked at the records for De Bildt and found the 2000 Mean =10.9 oC; 2002 =10.8 oC ; 2005 10.7 oC. This is a temperature decrease of 0.2 oC. If one considers the fact
that over the past century the temperature rose by 0.8 oC, then it
means that 25 % of the rise has been eliminated since the warmest year
1998. |
|
2005 |
Europe - Nederlands southward into Italy |
"A
record snow storm at the first weekend of Advent has plunged parts of
[Germany's] The winter storm was caused by a low pressure zone over Western Europe, which brought the most sudden drop in air pressure in decades - the backside of another Leroux MPH, of course. |
The
winter storm was caused by a low pressure zone over Western Europe,
which brought the most sudden drop In the city of Münster, a continuous set of meteorological observations since 1888 show that the previous record for snow height in November was 30 centimeters - a record that goes back to the year 1925. This was broken by the current snow height of 32 cm. The overall highest snow level was measured in the city on 28 January 1897 and amounted to 38 centimeters.... Problems
due to the sudden cold weather were also reported in Germany, Belgium,
France, Switzerland, Italy |
In case you have no idea what a Leroux MPH is - find and read! - Leroux, Marcel, Global Warming: Myth or Reality? 540 p., Hardcover ISBN:3-540-23909-X. Springer-Praxis books |
|
2005 |
Polar Glaciers |
James Hansen and others make claims about Greenland glacier shrinkages that simply do not correspond with known expansions on the upper levels, and ignore fundamentals of glacier dynamics, e.g., when it snows on top, and is cold, the pressures tend to force 'shedding' along the edges... |
Greenland's
ice cap has thickened slightly in recent years despite wide predictions
of a thaw triggered by global warming. Recent growth in the interior
regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet is reported by a Norwegian-led team
of climate scientists. The growth is estimated to be about 6cm per year
during the study period, 1992-2003. They derive and analyze the The
Greenland coastal temperatures have followed the early 20th century
global Paul Blowers, an assistant professor in UA's Chemical and Environmental Engineering Department, first encountered the global-warming data vacuum when he set out to create an elective course in which students would evaluate manufacturing processes for their environmental damage. Dr. Charles A. Perry, of USGS in Kansas has studied Mississippi River waterflow and it's relation to Solar Influences and found interesting links - into the western Pacific Ocean. |
Science,
20 October 2005 European
Space Agency, 4 November 2005 - ESA
SATELLITE SURVEY SHOWS GROWTH OF GREENLAND ICE SHEETS Dr. Patrick Michaels takes a long hard look at Antarctic records - and comments of short-term records and related claims... GLOBAL WARMING MIGHT BE GOOD FOR YOUR HEALTH - The Ottawa Citizen, 14 February 2006 The common cold season is now shorter, researchers say. reports Tom Spears, The Ottawa Citizen Of course we hear, and even learn more about Flu \Pandemics every day - even about 1918's real source... |
|
2005 |
North America |
Another interesting link about what is ongoing in
|
Leroux Mobile Polar Highs are frequent, and very COLD this year, promoting both Cold & Warm Events - depending upon where you are. That means Cold fronts and lots of tornadoes in the Midwest and south, while heavy rain started off the fall, and now freezes are du jour. Meanwhile, from Central California into Baja have had weeks of sustained Santa Ana winds - usual for October to January, but this series bringing some record highs - not often so far north. All terminated by record low temperatures for the Holiday weekend in the same region, as the Low Pressure and another Leroux MPH crash down the coastline from the Northwest, bringing long overdue rainfall. |
News |
|
October 2005 |
Pakistan, India and surrounding mountain areas |
7.6 Richter Scale
Earthquake levels neighborhoods, public schools, and isolated suburban regions. |
Death toll will take weeks to determine - over 79,000 victims are presently listed. Homes are flattened and roadways are blocked by fallen boulders, trees and landslides. Aftershocks cause concern, but the approaching winter is more of an issue, affecting the survivors. India offers refuge to Pakistani victims - a major act of positive response. |
News |
|
2005 Hurricane Season from Hell! |
Gulf Coast, from New Orleans Inland across Mississippi, Alabama, and points NE |
Just 6 weeks after hurricane Denis erased much of Florida's panhandle coastline, and wandered onshore - Katrina wreaks havoc - flattens coastline, homes, and unplugs the levees - decades overdue for restructuring - flooding entire communities - no power - no water, no information from inside or outside or help from FEMA for days to weeks - and Then Came WILMA! - washed out Cancun resorts and The Keys, then turned the lights off in southern Florida |
Literally millions were forced to evacuate, or become trapped, or worse. So many of the displaced have had no clue as to the fates of their families or associates, while the storm passed nearby or overhead, leaving little behind other than flooded shambles. The region's fishing cultures will suffer severe losses due to pollution, loss of infrastructure, etc. The good News - so many offers to take in survivors, and help them get back on their feet - if not really back home. The task ahead, to get some semblance of organization back in charge - and start the rehabilitation. Body counts are remarkably low to date, nor the worst amongst historical scenarios - by any standard. But it is not over, yet |
NBC News Casters ventured before the storm to New Orleans, (Louisiana's official gov website) with only some making it into the more devastated areas in Mississippi, and Alabama some days after the storm. Roffer's Fishery Forecast provides a view of the Mississippi Plume Disaster Response/Relief Management was at its worst. The Blame game continues, but Bush bares his chest. (google on 'failure' for an excellent evaluation of 'W' - before and after) |
|
2005 |
Equatorial Troposphere MSU Vs Surface Satellite Data |
Willis Eschenbach composed and forwarded this message to John Christy, Roy Spencer and the other folks involved with the MSU project - An artifact of the diurnal correction applied to LT has been discovered by Carl Mears and Frank Wentz (Remote Sensing Systems). This artifact contributed an error term in certain types of diurnal cycles, most noteably in the tropics. "We have applied a new diurnal correction based on 3 AMSU instruments and call the dataset v5.2. This artifact does not appear in MT or LS. The new global trend from Dec 1978 to July 2005 is +0.123 C/decade, or +0.035 C/decade warmer than v5.1. This particular error is within the published margin of error for LT of +/- 0.05 C/decade (Christy et al. 2003). We (thank Carl and Frank for digging into our procedure and discovering this error. All radiosonde comparisons have been rerun and the agreement is still exceptionally good. There was virtually no impact of this error outside of the tropics. |
As well, the Climate Sceptics group sent this note, also composed by Willis E: We would all like to offer our sincere congratulations to John Christy and the other folks involved with the MSU project for: 1) Making the data freely available to other researchers. 2) Acknowledging the error when it was pointed out. 3) Correcting the error as soon as it was verified. 4) Notifying all concerned about the error. 5) Thanking the other researchers for finding the error.
The more important point in reading through all this is that the public should note that the entire record being discussed in that from satellites flying only since 1978 - a period of recognized Global Warming - associated primarily with the Pacific Basin Warm Step - and associated increase ENSO Warm Event Frequency - thus lots of surface ocean and latent heat transfer - poleward. It all seems like just good solid basic scientific behaviour ... Until you think about what happened with the hockey stick ... See Below |
Mears, C.A., and F.J. Wentz, 2005: The effect of diurnal correction on satellite-derived lower tropospheric temperature.
as of August 11, all online at http://www.scienceexpress.org. Roy Spencer, one of the original scientists concerned with the MSU/Surface data set disagreements posted a useful background statement on Techcentralstation on August 11: "Some
Convergence of Global Warming Estimates" "Since
we (UAH) had already been working on a new diurnal adjustment
technique, based upon the newer and more powerful AMSUs that have been
flying since 1998, we rushed our new method to completion recently, and
implemented new corrections. ... the UAH global temperature trends for
the period 1979 to the present have increased from +0.09 to +0.12 deg.
C/decade -- still below the RSS estimate of +0.19 deg. C/decade. |
|
2005 |
Northeastern Pacific |
Unseasonably warm water has resulted in a very low zooplankton production throughout the spring and early summer, causing considerable concern over cause, and likely consequences. |
On Aug. 3, oceanographers
returning from a three-week research cruise off the coast of Washington
and British Columbia announced that cold deep nutrient-rich waters are
replacing the unseasonably warm waters that have |
The ECOHAB-PNW (Ecology and Oceanography of Harmful Algal Blooms Pacific Northwest) cruise is part of a federally funded effort to determine the environmental factors that make the Washington and British Columbia a hot bed of toxic marine diatoms of the genus Pseudo-nitzschia. |
|
2005 |
Wall Street Journal |
Kyoto by Degrees - editorial June 21, 2005; Page A16 Feb. 14, 2005 article by Antonio Regalado |
One of only a very few News media articles that broaches the adequacy of both the IPCC Emphasis of the Mann, Bradley and Hughes Hockey Stick, and the recent negative methodology reviews by McKitrick and MacIntyre, as well as the dataset review by Soon and Baliunas showing that the denial by Mann et all of the 'reality' of the varuious historical Warm/Cold Climate periods was wrong, and, as well, the present inadequacy of GCMs capabilities to forecast anything. |
Online Wall Street Journal Editorial Article by Antonio Regalado HOCKEY GAME CALLED! Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, 20 July 2005 - Further Comments |
|
June 2005 |
Central Europe and Southward
and then there is Australia... |
Serious increases in Pole to Equator winds (& MobilePolar Highs) associated with the Climate Regime Shift that was initiated in 1998-99 - have delivered Cold and Wet to regions that have not seen it for a longwhile. Unseasonably cold June brings 16 inches of snow to the Alps -"heavy snows block mountain passes in Austria and Croatia - IN JUNE - and Somalia just had its first recorded snow fall." Recent
events: Crisis amongst wannabe 'fortune tellers' who try to tie AGW to recent events, from Tsunamis to Hurricanes - What a Mess! |
The unseasonably cold June in Italy, a country that's normally balmy at this time of year: cooler-than-usual temperatures and hailstorms have inflicted millions in damage on crops. In agricultural areas near Verona in northeastern Italy "one of the hardest-hit areas" between 30 percent and 40 percent of peaches and apples were lost after hail pummeled trees. Heavy rain flooded several villages in central Serbia. A deluge fell on the region of Leskovac, and fresh snow blanketed the mountains of southern Serbia, the state weather bureau said. It's been far colder than usual in parts of Germany, where overnight temperatures recently have dropped as low as 35 in the east, and in neighboring Switzerland, where high winds swept have wreaked havoc... Many parts of Britain also have had an unusually cold June.Temperatures fell below freezing on Tuesday, with thermometers in the village of Aboyne, Scotland, recording 30 degrees, the Meteorological Office said, predicting more chilly nights this week. The Royal Air Force base at Benson in Oxfordshire notched its lowest June temperature ever at 31.46 degrees 6/14/05, beating the mark of 32 recorded in 1962. |
News Media reports
|
|
June 2005 |
Northeast US Coast - Massachusetts Bay and Spreading |
Red Tide Blooms as Cold surface waters enter the Region from the north, associated with the Cold, Wet Winter, and enhanced pollution. |
Fisheries for filter feeders and algavores are halted until the Bloom is gone, as the toxins involved are quite dangerous to humans and other species. |
News and |
|
2005 |
Arctic Ocean Heat Pulse tracked from North Atlantic |
One instrument record, retreived in 2004 by Igor Dmitrenko and a few other scientists, from a mooring located north of the Laptev Sea a few hundred miles off the coast of Siberia and about 150 meters (492 feet) below the ocean surface, recorded a jump in water temperature of 0.4 degrees Celsius on a February day as a column of warm water flooded past the instrument... Recently Igor Polyakov, a Russian scientist, contacted oceanographers from around the world to backtrack the water on its path into the high Arctic. |
Norwegian scientists had
moored stations in the Norwegian Sea, The
warming of the Arctic Ocean has happened before, in a pattern that |
Review in September 2005 of the Arctic ice records from 1973 -2002 by John McLean "Warm Atlantic Water
Heads North" |
|
May 2005 |
The most recent review of the Earth's Climate System, what to expect, and how to proceed, in a realistic, scientific mode. |
Marcel Leroux takes a
hard look at the reality of the greenhouse effect, He poses the 'heretical'
question if warming may be considered a benefit in some regions. |
In the global-warming debate, definitive answers to questions about ultimate causes and effects remain elusive. Marcel Leroux seeks to separate fact from fiction in this critical debate from a climatological perspective. Beginning
with a review of the sources of the dire hypotheses for climate trends,
the author describes the history of the 1990, 95 & 1991
Intergovernmental Panel Reports on Climate Change (IPCC) and many
previous and subsequent This timely and controversial book lays out the scientific case of the sizable skeptical scientific community who challenge the accepted 'wisdom' that warming is bad, and that humans have a major role in ongoing warming. |
Leroux, Marcel, Global Warming: Myth or Reality? 540 p., Hardcover ISBN: 3-540-23909-X. Springer-Praxis books |
|
2005 vs Prior Epochs |
Global |
Recent Media Focus often Distorts Perspectives, given Historical Information, particularly regarding Natural Events - and Social Consequences A timely article in EOS, 04/01/05 weekly report from the American Geophysical Union by Chao (NASA) and Gross (JPL) point out that the Sumatra Event was the 4th largest of the last Century, but had a negligible effect on Earth's Rotation Rate (LOD) - despite Media Hype, and the fact that most of our monitoring technology is not up to the required sensitivity levels. |
Death and Destruction is hardly new in our world, and perhaps a brief review of what occurred only 50 to 75 or so years ago - when there were only 1/3 as many people on Earth - will help provide some restraint to "blame-gaming". Then Imagine 250 years ago - when there were only about 600,000 million people... A point that needs to be understood, best exemplified above, is that Means and Percentages are not very useful in making comparisons of Who? How Many? or What Level of Threat? existed for each or any of these 'surprise' Events. Marginalized people are in danger All the Time. |
International Earth Rotation and reference System's Service (IERS) website for Special Bureau for Mantle observations are recorded (21,600+ major earthquakes with R>5 since 1977). |
|
January, 2005 |
Scandanavia, Northern Europe, Western USA |
Mobile Polar Highs encounter warm wet sources, and these regions are now cold, wet, and windy. The strength of the storm over Scandanavia et al has been compared to the one that occured in 1969 After
years of relative drought, some places |
A fast moving storm with exeptional strength passed over the southern part of Scandinavia and will soon be followed by another. The storm intensity was above normal with sustained winds around 30 m/s (in southern Sweden and Denmark). The bridge between Sweden and Denmark was closed. The Barsebäck nuclear plant was closed as power lines were broken by falling trees. 260,000 people were cut off from electricity. Northern California has reported up to 20 feet of snow in the last week with several days of the "Pineapple Express" combined with a low off the northern west coast of the US continuing to batter the formerly drought stricken west coast. |
News What is a Mobile Polar High? Well, they are huge Polar Atmospheric Subsidence Events that control the Earth's major energy transport, as they sweep from the Polar source, across continents, into and over oceans, affecting the locations, directions and intensities of the various Trade-Winds - causing vast Cooling Events, storms, and other phenomena - The Linked example occurred April 7, 2005 More Info see Marcel Leroux, 1998, "Dynamic Analysis of Weather and Climate" Wiley/Praxis. NASA Imagery of North Africa Snowstorm 1/26-28/05 |
|
2005 |
Dark Days Dominate the New Year! Sumatra - Then spread throughout the Indian Ocean |
9.0 Richter Earthquake
Sumatra releases another historical Tsunami - and devastation proceeds. |
Over 150,000 known deaths - accounts are not complete as many small island and other isolated comunities have yet to be assessed. Secondary complications include lack of infrastructure, water contamination and basic sanitation issues, and the constant possibilities for disease outbreaks as seasonal weather proceeds, and flooding etc., occurs. |
Official USGS Earthquake Hazards Posting- Description NASA's View of Earth's Changes A fuller description of the Processeses Involved
Catastrophe's Warning
Signs Went Unheeded What Noone Really Wants to See... |
|
January 5, 2005 |
Australia |
According to oday's news - Australia's mean temperature in 2004 was 0.4 degrees above the 1961-90 average. The report claims that this makes it the seventh warmest year on record but the Bureau of Meteorology website and then the "sorted Data Set" option) shows it to be the tenth warmest. |
If the report is correct - No Press Release to support it - this would mean that Australia has entered a cooling phase. Calculations by John
McLean show that the 11-year running average of mean temperature peaked
in 1993 at 0.41 degrees higher than the 61-90 average but the latest |
It was also reported that the WMO says that mean temperatures in 2004 were 0.44 degrees warmer than the 61-90 average and this makes it the fourth hottest year on record. In 1998 the anomaly was 0.54 degrees so One (John McLean and I) wonders if this decrease to 0.44 is also part of a trend of decreasing temperatures. |
|
January 4, 2005 |
New Zealand |
"December chill the worst for 59 years" "Snow, frost, hail and a tornado marked the first month of summer, with the coldest temperatures recorded in December since 1945." |
"The
national average temperature was just 13.4C - 2.2C below normal and
more |
|
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January 4, 2005 |
US Senate |
Senator James M. Inhofe |
Distinctly powerful recent insights into Global Warming that do not support a major role for CO2, or that we are experiencing the 'most Warming in 1000 years. |
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| December 30, 2004 | United Arab Emirates | This time on the Arabian peninsula received snow for the first time IN THEIR RECORDED HISTORY. |
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