Let's compare SST anomaly for 25 July 1997, with that of 22 October.

The Problem is not GONE. The analysts changed the scale on September 5th, so that they could get the full range of data onto the maps. However, if you check the distribution of the +2 to 3C anomalous SST, it is less associated with the nearshore than in the early records.


Lets compare the Global maps of SST (not the Anomalies), with the Expected SST (Climatology).


Then lets look at the Anomaly (The true SST minus Expected) for 25 July

and 27 October Anomaly

and Real SST

And then, compare the above to Climatology, or Expected Conditions

The general patterns are nearly the same. HOWEVER, there is a much stronger (wider and warmer) component of eastern Warm Pool to Central Mexico water, and a poorly formed, or absent Humboldt Current/Upwelling from Southern Peru north and westward, revealing the likely most complicated weather and ocean population displacements will occur south of the Equator, and into Central Mexico. The climatic consequences in the USA will primarily affect upstream locations from south Texas eastward to Florida.

If California is to be affected, it will be from the Pacific west and equatorward of Hawaii, as the season progresses. The somewhat cool patterns of the recent months may portend lesser problems than some have predicted for California, given that most of the major wet events actually have preceeded ENSO Warm Events, and have been associated with Cold offshore ocean temperatures. The retreat of the offshore anomalies since september is good news for Californians,

If the trend continues. . .


What is it that were worry about?



Big Storms and Rainfall

from Warm Ocean Areas